CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#120 in the world · win 1:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
56%68%
PCIFIC · 28 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Black Phoenix · 69 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
41%52%
PCIFIC · 18 mapsedge Black Phoenix +11%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
53%56%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 32 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
24%44%
PCIFIC · 13 mapsedge Black Phoenix +20%Black Phoenix · 28 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
69%50%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge PCIFIC +19%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
50%63%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +13%Black Phoenix · 20 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%53%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
PCIFIC 47%Black Phoenix 53%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 74%
Series resultPCIFIC 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1