Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Illyrians#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
61%50%
PCIFIC · 19 mapsedge PCIFIC +11%Illyrians · 0 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
50%50%
PCIFIC · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 0 maps
AnubisIllyrians pick
33%50%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge Illyrians +17%Illyrians · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
45%50%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge Illyrians +5%Illyrians · 0 maps
MiragePCIFIC ban
45%50%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge Illyrians +5%Illyrians · 0 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
67%50%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Illyrians · 0 maps
DefaultPCIFIC ban
40%50%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge Illyrians +10%Illyrians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
2. BanIllyrians remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickIllyrians take Anubis
5. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
6. BanPCIFIC remove Default
DeciderInferno (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
PCIFIC 64%Illyrians 36%
The model gave 64% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
PCIFIC 42%Illyrians 58%
The model gave 58% on Illyrians — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 52%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2