ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KUUSAMO#186 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
61%40%
PCIFIC · 14 mapsedge PCIFIC +21%KUUSAMO · 1 map
MiragePCIFIC ban
45%50%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge KUUSAMO +5%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
45%40%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge PCIFIC +5%KUUSAMO · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%KUUSAMO · 1 map
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
30%50%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge KUUSAMO +20%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
CacheKUUSAMO ban
63%50%
PCIFIC · 4 mapsedge PCIFIC +13%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
DefaultKUUSAMO pick
40%50%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge KUUSAMO +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickKUUSAMO take Default
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
PCIFIC 73%KUUSAMO 27%
The model gave 73% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
PCIFIC 53%KUUSAMO 47%
The model gave 53% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
PCIFIC 63%KUUSAMO 37%
The model gave 63% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteKUUSAMO · 53%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3