ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
63%22%
PCIFIC · 15 mapsedge PCIFIC +41%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
42%63%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
45%29%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge PCIFIC +16%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%53%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge PCIFIC +14%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
30%50%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +20%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%67%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
DeciderCache (67% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
PCIFIC 87%MOUZ NXT 13%
The model gave 87% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
PCIFIC 27%MOUZ NXT 73%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 55%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2