CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
71%68%
Peladona · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Imperial · 18 maps
MirageImperial pick
50%70%
Peladona · 2 mapsedge Imperial +20%Imperial · 19 maps
Dust2Peladona pick
75%67%
Peladona · 4 mapsedge Peladona +8%Imperial · 11 maps
NukePeladona ban
50%72%
Peladona · 0 mapsedge Imperial +22%Imperial · 14 maps
CacheImperial ban
50%64%
Peladona · 0 mapsedge Imperial +14%Imperial · 10 maps
AnubisPeladona ban
50%56%
Peladona · 0 mapsedge Imperial +6%Imperial · 5 maps
AncientImperial ban
40%50%
Peladona · 1 mapedge Imperial +10%Imperial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPeladona remove Anubis
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickPeladona take Dust2
4. PickImperial take Mirage
5. BanImperial remove Cache
6. BanPeladona remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (71% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Peladona 63%Imperial 37%
The model gave 63% on Peladona — the map was taken by Peladona.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Peladona 33%Imperial 67%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Peladona 54%Imperial 46%
The model gave 54% on Peladona — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 68%
Series resultImperial 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3