Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%38%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +5%Falcons Force · 4 maps
MiragePermitta ban
57%50%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge Permitta +7%Falcons Force · 6 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
50%22%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Permitta +28%Falcons Force · 5 maps
CacheFalcons Force pick
67%71%
Permitta · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Falcons Force · 3 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%25%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge Permitta +8%Falcons Force · 4 maps
AnubisPermitta pick
57%40%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge Permitta +17%Falcons Force · 1 map
InfernoPermitta ban
50%50%
Permitta · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Inferno
2. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
3. PickPermitta take Anubis
4. PickFalcons Force take Cache
5. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
6. BanPermitta remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (33% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Permitta 48%Falcons Force 52%
The model gave 52% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Permitta 64%Falcons Force 36%
The model gave 64% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
Permitta 57%Falcons Force 43%
The model gave 57% on Permitta — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 56%
Series resultFalcons Force 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3