ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
40%56%
Permitta · 16 mapsedge Noir Verse +16%Noir Verse · 12 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
48%36%
Permitta · 21 mapedge Permitta +12%Noir Verse · 7 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
53%65%
Permitta · 13 mapsedge Noir Verse +12%Noir Verse · 13 maps
AnubisPermitta ban
46%44%
Permitta · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Noir Verse · 14 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
30%45%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Noir Verse +15%Noir Verse · 16 maps
CachePermitta pick
64%50%
Permitta · 7 mapsedge Permitta +14%Noir Verse · 14 maps
DefaultNoir Verse ban
40%33%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +7%Noir Verse · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
3. PickPermitta take Cache
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Default
6. BanPermitta remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (40% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Permitta 35%Noir Verse 65%
The model gave 65% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Permitta 55%Noir Verse 45%
The model gave 55% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Permitta 34%Noir Verse 66%
The model gave 66% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 59%
Series resultPermitta 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3