Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
48%43%
Permitta · 17 mapsedge Permitta +5%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%33%
Permitta · 11 mapsedge Permitta +27%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
40%40%
Permitta · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Saint Sinners · 1 map
AnubisSaint Sinners pick
50%50%
Permitta · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Saint Sinners · 0 maps
CacheSaint Sinners ban
70%40%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +30%Saint Sinners · 1 map
DefaultPermitta ban
38%43%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Saint Sinners +5%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
33%50%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge Saint Sinners +17%Saint Sinners · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickSaint Sinners take Anubis
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
6. BanPermitta remove Default
DeciderMirage (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Permitta 58%Saint Sinners 42%
The model gave 58% on Permitta — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Permitta 31%Saint Sinners 69%
The model gave 69% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 64%
Series resultSaint Sinners 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2