Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
30%42%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 15 maps
MirageVexar ban
50%50%
Permitta · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 8 maps
NukePermitta pick
50%36%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Permitta +14%Vexar · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Permitta · 1 mapedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 8 maps
AnubisVexar ban
63%38%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Permitta +25%Vexar · 4 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
33%63%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge Vexar +30%Vexar · 4 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
50%60%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Mirage
6. BanPermitta remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Permitta 34%Vexar 66%
The model gave 66% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Permitta 66%Vexar 34%
The model gave 66% on Permitta — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 54%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2