ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#102 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WBT#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
38%54%
Permitta · 9 mapsedge WBT +16%WBT · 9 maps
AnubisWBT pick
63%56%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge Permitta +7%WBT · 14 maps
MirageWBT ban
60%47%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +13%WBT · 11 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
33%57%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge WBT +24%WBT · 10 maps
NukePermitta pick
50%56%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge WBT +6%WBT · 5 maps
CacheWBT ban
70%43%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +27%WBT · 3 maps
DefaultPermitta ban
33%60%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge WBT +27%WBT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanWBT remove Cache
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickWBT take Anubis
5. BanWBT remove Mirage
6. BanPermitta remove Default
DeciderAncient (38% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Permitta 47%WBT 53%
The model gave 53% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Dust2prediction correct17:19
Permitta 25%WBT 75%
The model gave 75% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 53%
Series resultWBT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2