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AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
63%57%
Phantom Academy · 4 mapsedge Phantom Academy +6%Honvéd · 10 maps
Dust2Honvéd pick
60%62%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapnearly even -2%Honvéd · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge Phantom Academy +10%Honvéd · 4 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
60%57%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapnearly even +3%Honvéd · 3 maps
OverpassPhantom Academy ban
50%29%
Phantom Academy · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +21%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
60%60%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%Honvéd · 1 map
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
40%40%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom Academy remove Overpass
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
Phantom Academy 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Phantom Academy 51%Honvéd 49%
The model gave 51% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Phantom Academy 60%Honvéd 40%
The model gave 60% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 54%
Series resultHonvéd 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3