Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#87 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
55%71%
Phantom · 16 mapsedge fnatic +16%fnatic · 13 maps
Dust2Phantom ban
55%50%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +5%fnatic · 8 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
44%77%
Phantom · 5 mapsedge fnatic +33%fnatic · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
62%67%
Phantom · 9 mapsedge fnatic +5%fnatic · 5 maps
CachePhantom ban
33%73%
Phantom · 2 mapsedge fnatic +40%fnatic · 11 maps
Miragefnatic ban
45%30%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +15%fnatic · 6 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
Phantom · 10 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Cache
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickPhantom take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Anubis
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanPhantom remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (62% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Phantom 36%fnatic 64%
The model gave 64% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Phantom 18%fnatic 82%
The model gave 82% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 54%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2