NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#87 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Phantom pick
71%67%
Phantom · 3 mapsnearly even +4%GenOne · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%50%
Phantom · 3 mapsedge GenOne +7%GenOne · 4 maps
NukeGenOne pick
60%57%
Phantom · 1 mapnearly even +3%GenOne · 3 maps
MirageGenOne ban
57%50%
Phantom · 3 mapsedge Phantom +7%GenOne · 0 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
50%67%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge GenOne +17%GenOne · 2 maps
DefaultGenOne ban
50%40%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Phantom +10%GenOne · 1 map
OverpassPhantom ban
50%40%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Phantom +10%GenOne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickGenOne take Nuke
5. BanGenOne remove Default
6. BanPhantom remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Phantom 53%GenOne 47%
The model gave 53% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Phantom 46%GenOne 54%
The model gave 54% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Phantom 53%GenOne 47%
The model gave 53% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 62%
Series resultPhantom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3