Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · BO1
pre-match prediction
Phantom#87 in the worldseries probability
62%38%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
ROUNDS#231 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Phantom · 18 mapsnearly even +0%ROUNDS · 6 maps
NukeROUNDS ban
47%38%
Phantom · 11 mapsedge Phantom +9%ROUNDS · 9 maps
MirageROUNDS ban
45%17%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +28%ROUNDS · 8 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
53%57%
Phantom · 11 mapsnearly even -4%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Dust2Phantom ban
55%29%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +26%ROUNDS · 3 maps
AnubisROUNDS ban
45%40%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +5%ROUNDS · 1 map
DefaultPhantom ban
50%78%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +28%ROUNDS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Default
2. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
3. BanPhantom remove Dust2
4. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
5. BanPhantom remove Inferno
6. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)