Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
54%62%
Phantom · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +8%Walczaki · 25 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
67%50%
Phantom · 11 mapsedge Phantom +17%Walczaki · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%63%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 15 maps
MiragePhantom ban
41%75%
Phantom · 13 mapsedge Walczaki +34%Walczaki · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
50%75%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Walczaki · 12 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
50%60%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 11 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
67%33%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +34%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanPhantom remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Phantom 23%Walczaki 77%
The model gave 77% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Phantom.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Phantom 69%Walczaki 31%
The model gave 69% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 67%
Series resultPhantom 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2