5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pressure Monstersloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Pressure Monsters ban
50%64%
Pressure Monsters · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +14%Rare Atom · 18 maps
CachePressure Monsters pick
60%71%
Pressure Monsters · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +11%Rare Atom · 10 maps
InfernoRare Atom pick
50%57%
Pressure Monsters · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 10 maps
AncientPressure Monsters ban
50%54%
Pressure Monsters · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Rare Atom · 9 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
60%50%
Pressure Monsters · 1 mapedge Pressure Monsters +10%Rare Atom · 6 maps
AnubisRare Atom ban
50%57%
Pressure Monsters · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%33%
Pressure Monsters · 0 mapsedge Pressure Monsters +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPressure Monsters remove Dust2
2. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
3. PickPressure Monsters take Cache
4. PickRare Atom take Inferno
5. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
6. BanPressure Monsters remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Pressure Monsters 40%Rare Atom 60%
The model gave 60% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
Pressure Monsters 46%Rare Atom 54%
The model gave 54% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 70%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2