Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Prestige#100 in the world · win 2:1series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePrestige ban
43%60%
Prestige · 3 mapsedge Metizport +17%Metizport · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%50%
Prestige · 3 mapsedge Metizport +7%Metizport · 4 maps
AncientPrestige pick
57%57%
Prestige · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 3 maps
NukeMetizport pick
50%50%
Prestige · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 6 maps
OverpassPrestige ban
50%56%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Metizport +6%Metizport · 5 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
50%50%
Prestige · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 2 maps
CacheMetizport ban
50%40%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%Metizport · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrestige remove Overpass
2. BanMetizport remove Anubis
3. PickPrestige take Ancient
4. PickMetizport take Nuke
5. BanMetizport remove Cache
6. BanPrestige remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Prestige 53%Metizport 47%
The model gave 53% on Prestige — the map was taken by Metizport.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Prestige 40%Metizport 60%
The model gave 60% on Metizport — the map was taken by Prestige.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Prestige 50%Metizport 50%
The model gave 50% on Prestige — the map was taken by Prestige.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 81%
Series resultPrestige 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3