WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#66 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPRIVATE pick
60%63%
PRIVATE · 1 mapnearly even -3%Nuclear TigeRES · 20 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%39%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge PRIVATE +11%Nuclear TigeRES · 19 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
50%47%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%78%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
50%46%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
60%22%
PRIVATE · 1 mapedge PRIVATE +38%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
50%56%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickPRIVATE take Ancient
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
PRIVATE 64%Nuclear TigeRES 36%
The model gave 64% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
PRIVATE 50%Nuclear TigeRES 50%
The model gave 50% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 63%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2