UKIC Masters Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ryvex#181 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeRyvex pick
38%60%
Privateer · 9 mapsedge Ryvex +22%Ryvex · 1 map
AncientPrivateer ban
40%60%
Privateer · 6 mapsedge Ryvex +20%Ryvex · 1 map
Dust2Privateer ban
27%50%
Privateer · 7 mapsedge Ryvex +23%Ryvex · 0 maps
MirageRyvex ban
38%50%
Privateer · 4 mapsedge Ryvex +12%Ryvex · 0 maps
InfernoPrivateer pick
67%50%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +17%Ryvex · 0 maps
CacheRyvex ban
40%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Ryvex +10%Ryvex · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Ryvex +10%Ryvex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
2. BanRyvex remove Mirage
3. PickPrivateer take Inferno
4. PickRyvex take Nuke
5. BanRyvex remove Cache
6. BanPrivateer remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct22:25
Privateer 25%Ryvex 75%
The model gave 75% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Privateer 32%Ryvex 68%
The model gave 68% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Privateer.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Privateer 38%Ryvex 62%
The model gave 63% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Model check result
Model favoriteRyvex · 54%
Series resultRyvex 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3