ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#119 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon ban
38%50%
Procyon · 17 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +12%BORRACHEIROS · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%53%
Procyon · 13 mapsnearly even +0%BORRACHEIROS · 13 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
67%42%
Procyon · 17 mapsedge Procyon +25%BORRACHEIROS · 8 maps
AnubisBORRACHEIROS ban
62%54%
Procyon · 9 mapsedge Procyon +8%BORRACHEIROS · 9 maps
MirageBORRACHEIROS pick
67%50%
Procyon · 5 mapsedge Procyon +17%BORRACHEIROS · 12 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
58%33%
Procyon · 8 mapsedge Procyon +25%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
DefaultProcyon ban
40%60%
Procyon · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +20%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Dust2
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickProcyon take Inferno
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Mirage
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Anubis
6. BanProcyon remove Default
DeciderAncient (53% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Procyon 76%BORRACHEIROS 24%
The model gave 76% on Procyon — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Procyon 64%BORRACHEIROS 36%
The model gave 64% on Procyon — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Model check result
Model favoriteProcyon · 59%
Series resultBORRACHEIROS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2