ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon ban
33%44%
Procyon · 14 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +11%Turma do Pagode · 14 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
54%61%
Procyon · 9 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 14 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
60%50%
Procyon · 11 mapsedge Procyon +10%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%38%
Procyon · 6 mapsedge Procyon +22%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
50%43%
Procyon · 6 mapsedge Procyon +7%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
67%57%
Procyon · 5 mapsedge Procyon +10%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
DefaultProcyon ban
50%40%
Procyon · 2 mapsedge Procyon +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Dust2
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickProcyon take Inferno
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
6. BanProcyon remove Default
DeciderAnubis (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Procyon 74%Turma do Pagode 26%
The model gave 74% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Procyon 36%Turma do Pagode 64%
The model gave 64% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 61%
Series resultProcyon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2