ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#119 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon ban
40%40%
Procyon · 16 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 16 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
50%67%
Procyon · 10 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%Turma do Pagode · 17 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
67%56%
Procyon · 14 mapsedge Procyon +11%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
AnubisTurma do Pagode ban
64%45%
Procyon · 7 mapsedge Procyon +19%Turma do Pagode · 7 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
50%43%
Procyon · 8 mapsedge Procyon +7%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
MirageProcyon ban
67%57%
Procyon · 5 mapsedge Procyon +10%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
Procyon · 2 mapsedge Procyon +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Mirage
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
3. PickProcyon take Inferno
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Anubis
6. BanProcyon remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Procyon 53%Turma do Pagode 47%
The model gave 53% on Procyon — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Procyon 31%Turma do Pagode 69%
The model gave 69% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteProcyon · 55%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2