European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientbrazylijski luz pick
29%41%
PsychoFace · 3 mapsedge brazylijski luz +12%brazylijski luz · 13 maps
Dust2PsychoFace pick
56%63%
PsychoFace · 12 mapsedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 4 maps
Nukebrazylijski luz ban
45%55%
PsychoFace · 7 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 7 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
30%45%
PsychoFace · 6 mapsedge brazylijski luz +15%brazylijski luz · 7 maps
AnubisPsychoFace ban
44%57%
PsychoFace · 5 mapsedge brazylijski luz +13%brazylijski luz · 3 maps
Overpassbrazylijski luz ban
67%50%
PsychoFace · 5 mapsedge PsychoFace +17%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Overpass
3. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Ancient
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Nuke
6. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
PsychoFace 47%brazylijski luz 53%
The model gave 53% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
PsychoFace 34%brazylijski luz 66%
The model gave 66% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 51%
Series resultbrazylijski luz 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2