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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PsychoFace#202 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
38%33%
PsychoFace · 4 mapsedge PsychoFace +5%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
AncientHEROIC Academy pick
40%43%
PsychoFace · 1 mapnearly even -3%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
60%43%
PsychoFace · 1 mapedge PsychoFace +17%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
40%29%
PsychoFace · 1 mapedge PsychoFace +11%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
OverpassPsychoFace pick
67%50%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsedge PsychoFace +17%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
AnubisPsychoFace ban
43%50%
PsychoFace · 3 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +7%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
3. PickPsychoFace take Overpass
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Ancient
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
6. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
PsychoFace 64%HEROIC Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
PsychoFace 58%HEROIC Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
PsychoFace 43%HEROIC Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 52%
Series resultPsychoFace 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3