Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · win 13:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 13:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL ban
67%62%
PURE · 2 mapsedge PURE +5%ASTRAL · 22 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
55%50%
PURE · 7 mapsedge PURE +5%ASTRAL · 12 maps
Dust2PURE ban
33%53%
PURE · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +20%ASTRAL · 13 maps
InfernoPURE ban
29%40%
PURE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +11%ASTRAL · 11 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
50%36%
PURE · 4 mapsedge PURE +14%ASTRAL · 10 maps
AnubisPURE ban
29%62%
PURE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +33%ASTRAL · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
3. BanPURE remove Inferno
4. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
5. BanPURE remove Dust2
6. BanASTRAL remove Ancient
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:0
PURE 64%ASTRAL 36%
The model gave 64% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 66%
Series resultPURE 13:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1