Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · win 13:9series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 13:9
atputiesloss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageatputies ban
50%33%
PURE · 6 mapsedge PURE +17%atputies · 2 maps
Nukeatputies ban
50%33%
PURE · 4 mapsedge PURE +17%atputies · 2 maps
AnubisPURE ban
29%50%
PURE · 3 mapsedge atputies +21%atputies · 0 maps
InfernoPURE ban
29%50%
PURE · 3 mapsedge atputies +21%atputies · 0 maps
Ancientatputies ban
67%50%
PURE · 2 mapsedge PURE +17%atputies · 0 maps
Dust2PURE ban
33%50%
PURE · 2 mapsedge atputies +17%atputies · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge atputies +10%atputies · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Inferno
2. Banatputies remove Ancient
3. BanPURE remove Anubis
4. Banatputies remove Mirage
5. BanPURE remove Dust2
6. Banatputies remove Nuke
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
PURE 67%atputies 33%
The model gave 67% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoritePURE · 58%
Series resultPURE 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1