ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukeeternal premium pick
50%43%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +7%eternal premium · 3 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
50%33%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%eternal premium · 2 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%60%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge eternal premium +10%eternal premium · 1 map
Anubiseternal premium ban
50%40%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +10%eternal premium · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. Baneternal premium remove Anubis
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. Picketernal premium take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
QUAZAR 54%eternal premium 46%
The model gave 54% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
QUAZAR 63%eternal premium 37%
The model gave 63% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteeternal premium · 57%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2