ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisQUAZAR pick
67%78%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +11%Fire Flux · 5 maps
Dust2Fire Flux pick
67%44%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +23%Fire Flux · 5 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%57%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Fire Flux · 3 maps
MirageQUAZAR ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Fire Flux · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%60%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +7%Fire Flux · 1 map
DefaultFire Flux ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Fire Flux · 0 maps
InfernoFire Flux ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanFire Flux remove Default
3. PickQUAZAR take Anubis
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
5. BanFire Flux remove Inferno
6. BanQUAZAR remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
QUAZAR 69%Fire Flux 31%
The model gave 69% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
QUAZAR 63%Fire Flux 37%
The model gave 63% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
QUAZAR 36%Fire Flux 64%
The model gave 64% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 55%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3