ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ReThink#237 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%50%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ReThink · 2 maps
AnubisQUAZAR pick
60%60%
QUAZAR · 1 mapnearly even +0%ReThink · 1 map
Dust2ReThink pick
50%67%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge ReThink +17%ReThink · 2 maps
NukeReThink ban
67%50%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%ReThink · 0 maps
InfernoReThink ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%ReThink · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanReThink remove Nuke
3. PickQUAZAR take Anubis
4. PickReThink take Dust2
5. BanReThink remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
QUAZAR 31%ReThink 69%
The model gave 69% on ReThink — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
QUAZAR 53%ReThink 47%
The model gave 53% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 50%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2