CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMartiansloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheMartians ban
77%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 9 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +27%Martians · 0 maps
AncientMartians pick
36%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 7 mapsedge Martians +14%Martians · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 7 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +5%Martians · 0 maps
MirageQUINTESSÊNCIA pick
55%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 7 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +5%Martians · 0 maps
InfernoQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
50%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Martians · 0 maps
AnubisQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
40%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 mapedge Martians +10%Martians · 0 maps
DefaultMartians ban
60%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 mapedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%Martians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Anubis
2. BanMartians remove Cache
3. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Mirage
4. PickMartians take Ancient
5. BanMartians remove Default
6. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
QUINTESSÊNCIA 58%Martians 42%
The model gave 58% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
QUINTESSÊNCIA 34%Martians 66%
The model gave 66% on Martians — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUINTESSÊNCIA · 55%
Series resultQUINTESSÊNCIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2