Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
pre-match predictionseries probability
60%40%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
Vexar#138 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
60%45%
Raccoons · 1 mapedge Raccoons +15%Vexar · 16 maps
MirageRaccoons pick
67%50%
Raccoons · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +17%Vexar · 8 maps
NukeVexar ban
60%42%
Raccoons · 1 mapedge Raccoons +18%Vexar · 8 maps
DefaultRaccoons ban
50%50%
Raccoons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 8 maps
InfernoRaccoons ban
67%60%
Raccoons · 2 mapsedge Raccoons +7%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%63%
Raccoons · 2 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%38%
Raccoons · 0 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRaccoons remove Default
2. BanVexar remove Nuke
3. PickRaccoons take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanRaccoons remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 63%)