FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5star#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
55%21%
Rare Atom · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +34%5star · 10 maps
InfernoRare Atom ban
38%50%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge 5star +12%5star · 8 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
70%56%
Rare Atom · 6 mapsedge Rare Atom +14%5star · 5 maps
Dust25star ban
71%50%
Rare Atom · 10 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%5star · 0 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%62%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge 5star +12%5star · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%63%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsnearly even +0%5star · 4 maps
Anubis5star pick
60%67%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge 5star +7%5star · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickRare Atom take Cache
4. Pick5star take Anubis
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. BanRare Atom remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (63% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Rare Atom 68%5star 32%
The model gave 68% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Rare Atom 35%5star 65%
The model gave 65% on 5star — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Rare Atom 81%5star 19%
The model gave 81% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 56%
Series result5star 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3