ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legion#194 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisRare Atom ban
40%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Legion +10%Legion · 0 maps
Dust2Legion ban
60%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +10%Legion · 0 maps
InfernoRare Atom pick
40%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Legion +10%Legion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
2. BanLegion remove Dust2
3. PickRare Atom take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Rare Atom 50%Legion 50%
The model gave 50% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Rare Atom 63%Legion 37%
The model gave 63% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 70%
Series resultRare Atom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2