ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoRare Atom pick
57%60%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsnearly even -3%TYLOO · 1 map
Dust2TYLOO ban
71%50%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%TYLOO · 0 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
60%40%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +20%TYLOO · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Rare Atom · 1 mapnearly even +0%TYLOO · 1 map
MirageTYLOO pick
40%60%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge TYLOO +20%TYLOO · 1 map
NukeRare Atom ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%TYLOO · 2 maps
AnubisTYLOO ban
40%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickRare Atom take Inferno
4. PickTYLOO take Mirage
5. BanTYLOO remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Rare Atom 72%TYLOO 28%
The model gave 72% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Overpassprediction correct3:13
Rare Atom 47%TYLOO 53%
The model gave 53% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Rare Atom 31%TYLOO 69%
The model gave 69% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 80%
Series resultTYLOO 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3