ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
RBLS#132 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPARTA#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSPARTA pick
50%50%
RBLS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
50%40%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge RBLS +10%SPARTA · 1 map
Dust2RBLS ban
50%60%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 1 map
InfernoRBLS pick
60%50%
RBLS · 1 mapedge RBLS +10%SPARTA · 0 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
60%50%
RBLS · 1 mapedge RBLS +10%SPARTA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Dust2
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickRBLS take Inferno
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
RBLS 63%SPARTA 37%
The model gave 63% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
RBLS 47%SPARTA 53%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed12:16
RBLS 60%SPARTA 40%
The model gave 60% on RBLS — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 51%
Series resultSPARTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3