CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
40%50%
regain · 11 mapsedge Babag +10%Babag · 0 maps
InfernoBabag ban
50%50%
regain · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Babag · 0 maps
Ancientregain pick
55%50%
regain · 7 mapsedge regain +5%Babag · 0 maps
Dust2Babag pick
50%40%
regain · 6 mapsedge regain +10%Babag · 1 map
Anubisregain ban
60%40%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +20%Babag · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
regain · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Babag · 0 maps
CacheBabag ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Babag · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Mirage
2. BanBabag remove Inferno
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickBabag take Dust2
5. BanBabag remove Cache
6. Banregain remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
regain 57%Babag 43%
The model gave 57% on regain — the map was taken by Babag.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
regain 53%Babag 47%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
regain 55%Babag 45%
The model gave 55% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 59%
Series resultregain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3