StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientregain pick
56%75%
regain · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +19%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%56%
regain · 4 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Infernoregain ban
33%64%
regain · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +31%Chicken Coop · 7 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
50%60%
regain · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%67%
regain · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
60%40%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +20%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
6. Banregain remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed22:18
regain 24%Chicken Coop 76%
The model gave 76% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by regain.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
regain 42%Chicken Coop 58%
The model gave 58% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 60%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2