NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
regain#162 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 10:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
46%50%
regain · 9 mapsnearly even -4%FarmVille · 2 maps
Dust2regain ban
56%43%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +13%FarmVille · 3 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
44%33%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +11%FarmVille · 2 maps
Ancientregain ban
44%50%
regain · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +6%FarmVille · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%40%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +20%FarmVille · 1 map
AnubisFarmVille ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Ancient
2. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
3. Banregain remove Mirage
4. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
5. Banregain remove Dust2
DeciderCache (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
regain 46%FarmVille 54%
The model gave 54% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 69%
Series resultFarmVille 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1