ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
50%18%
regain · 10 mapsedge regain +32%FarmVille · 7 maps
Mirageregain ban
44%56%
regain · 12 mapsedge FarmVille +12%FarmVille · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
45%36%
regain · 7 mapsedge regain +9%FarmVille · 7 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
62%50%
regain · 9 mapsedge regain +12%FarmVille · 2 maps
Cacheregain ban
60%56%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +4%FarmVille · 5 maps
DefaultFarmVille pick
57%50%
regain · 3 mapsedge regain +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
60%60%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +0%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Mirage
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickFarmVille take Default
5. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
6. Banregain remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (45% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
regain 56%FarmVille 44%
The model gave 56% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
regain 84%FarmVille 16%
The model gave 84% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 55%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2