ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fisher College#85 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFisher College pick
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fisher College · 2 maps
NukeFisher College ban
50%33%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
Ancientregain ban
50%60%
regain · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Mirageregain pick
50%40%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Ancient
2. BanFisher College remove Nuke
3. Pickregain take Mirage
4. PickFisher College take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
regain 53%Fisher College 47%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
regain 37%Fisher College 63%
The model gave 63% on Fisher College — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteFisher College · 60%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2