ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
41%56%
regain · 13 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +15%Iowa Stormboar · 14 maps
Dust2regain ban
43%64%
regain · 10 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Iowa Stormboar · 10 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
47%30%
regain · 13 mapsedge regain +17%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
Ancientregain pick
58%67%
regain · 8 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +9%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%36%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +14%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%56%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +4%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
DefaultIowa Stormboar ban
56%50%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +6%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Default
6. Banregain remove Dust2
DeciderCache (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
regain 33%Iowa Stormboar 67%
The model gave 67% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
regain 44%Iowa Stormboar 56%
The model gave 56% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by regain.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
regain 29%Iowa Stormboar 71%
The model gave 71% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 54%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3