ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
47%29%
regain · 13 mapsedge regain +18%New Legends · 3 maps
Mirageregain ban
38%50%
regain · 12 mapsedge New Legends +12%New Legends · 2 maps
Dust2New Legends ban
43%29%
regain · 10 mapsedge regain +14%New Legends · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%50%
regain · 7 mapsedge regain +5%New Legends · 4 maps
DefaultNew Legends pick
56%50%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +6%New Legends · 0 maps
Anubisregain ban
40%50%
regain · 1 mapedge New Legends +10%New Legends · 0 maps
CacheNew Legends ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%New Legends · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Anubis
2. BanNew Legends remove Cache
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickNew Legends take Default
5. BanNew Legends remove Dust2
6. Banregain remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
regain 58%New Legends 42%
The model gave 58% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
regain 35%New Legends 65%
The model gave 65% on New Legends — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 63%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2