CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
63%57%
regain · 4 mapsedge regain +6%Villainous · 3 maps
AncientVillainous ban
60%50%
regain · 6 mapsedge regain +10%Villainous · 0 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
67%40%
regain · 2 mapsedge regain +27%Villainous · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
33%50%
regain · 2 mapsedge Villainous +17%Villainous · 0 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
50%60%
regain · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Defaultregain ban
50%60%
regain · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Nukeregain ban
50%60%
regain · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanVillainous remove Dust2
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickVillainous take Anubis
5. BanVillainous remove Ancient
6. Banregain remove Default
DeciderMirage (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
regain 63%Villainous 37%
The model gave 63% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
regain 37%Villainous 63%
The model gave 63% on Villainous — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 56%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2