CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWithout a Roof pick
40%64%
regain · 11 mapsedge Without a Roof +24%Without a Roof · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%64%
regain · 9 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 10 maps
Ancientregain pick
58%54%
regain · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Without a Roof · 9 maps
Dust2regain ban
45%40%
regain · 7 mapsedge regain +5%Without a Roof · 6 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 6 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%60%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 1 map
CacheWithout a Roof ban
60%40%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +20%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Cache
6. Banregain remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (54% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed22:18
regain 25%Without a Roof 75%
The model gave 75% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by regain.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
regain 42%Without a Roof 58%
The model gave 58% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
regain 55%Without a Roof 45%
The model gave 55% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 71%
Series resultregain 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3