ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Reign Above#324 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageReign Above ban
50%67%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%Overtake Sector · 20 maps
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Reign Above · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 14 maps
AncientReign Above ban
50%50%
Reign Above · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
Dust2Reign Above pick
50%38%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge Reign Above +12%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Reign Above · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
CacheOvertake Sector pick
50%63%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReign Above remove Mirage
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
3. PickReign Above take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Cache
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
6. BanReign Above remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Reign Above 53%Overtake Sector 47%
The model gave 53% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Reign Above 59%Overtake Sector 41%
The model gave 59% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 68%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2