FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Reign Above#324 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisReign Above pick
63%71%
Reign Above · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +8%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
50%63%
Reign Above · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +13%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%60%
Reign Above · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Dust2Reign Above ban
40%60%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +20%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
MirageReign Above ban
50%50%
Reign Above · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
60%40%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge Reign Above +20%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge Reign Above +10%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReign Above remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
3. PickReign Above take Anubis
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
6. BanReign Above remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Reign Above 33%SportsBetExpert 67%
The model gave 67% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct1:13
Reign Above 35%SportsBetExpert 65%
The model gave 65% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 57%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2