NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ReThink#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DDrama#143 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientReThink pick
64%71%
ReThink · 7 mapsedge Drama +7%Drama · 3 maps
MirageDrama pick
73%57%
ReThink · 7 mapsedge ReThink +16%Drama · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%33%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge ReThink +10%Drama · 2 maps
AnubisReThink ban
29%40%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge Drama +11%Drama · 1 map
InfernoReThink ban
29%40%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge Drama +11%Drama · 1 map
OverpassDrama ban
71%50%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge ReThink +21%Drama · 0 maps
CacheDrama ban
50%60%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge Drama +10%Drama · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReThink remove Inferno
2. BanDrama remove Cache
3. PickReThink take Ancient
4. PickDrama take Mirage
5. BanDrama remove Overpass
6. BanReThink remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct2:13
ReThink 35%Drama 65%
The model gave 65% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
ReThink 44%Drama 56%
The model gave 56% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteReThink · 59%
Series resultDrama 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2