NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ReThink#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Misa#124 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
43%45%
ReThink · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 29 maps
Anubispossible decider
29%50%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge Misa +21%Misa · 22 maps
MirageMisa ban
73%43%
ReThink · 7 mapsedge ReThink +30%Misa · 17 maps
CacheReThink pick
50%39%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge ReThink +11%Misa · 19 maps
NukeReThink ban
50%47%
ReThink · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 15 maps
InfernoReThink ban
25%57%
ReThink · 4 mapsedge Misa +32%Misa · 10 maps
AncientMisa ban
58%43%
ReThink · 8 mapsedge ReThink +15%Misa · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReThink remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickReThink take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanReThink remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
ReThink 58%Misa 42%
The model gave 58% on ReThink — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
ReThink 80%Misa 20%
The model gave 80% on ReThink — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteReThink · 55%
Series resultMisa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2