Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRevise pick
56%33%
Revise · 5 mapsedge Revise +23%Bebop · 14 maps
Dust2Bebop pick
50%59%
Revise · 4 mapsedge Bebop +9%Bebop · 13 maps
NukeRevise ban
50%40%
Revise · 0 mapsedge Revise +10%Bebop · 11 maps
CacheRevise ban
33%50%
Revise · 2 mapsedge Bebop +17%Bebop · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%44%
Revise · 1 mapedge Revise +16%Bebop · 5 maps
InfernoBebop ban
50%44%
Revise · 0 mapsedge Revise +6%Bebop · 5 maps
AncientBebop ban
57%40%
Revise · 3 mapsedge Revise +17%Bebop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRevise remove Nuke
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickRevise take Mirage
4. PickBebop take Dust2
5. BanBebop remove Inferno
6. BanRevise remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:12
Revise 38%Bebop 62%
The model gave 62% on Bebop — the map was taken by Revise.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
Revise 36%Bebop 64%
The model gave 64% on Bebop — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 62%
Series resultRevise 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2