DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
67%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +17%Abyssal · 6 maps
InfernoRooster ban
50%56%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +6%Abyssal · 5 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
38%38%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 4 maps
AnubisRooster pick
67%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +17%Abyssal · 0 maps
Dust2Abyssal ban
63%40%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +23%Abyssal · 1 map
OverpassRooster ban
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%60%
Rooster · 1 mapnearly even +0%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Inferno
2. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
6. BanRooster remove Overpass
DeciderCache (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
Rooster 64%Abyssal 36%
The model gave 64% on Rooster — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
Rooster 74%Abyssal 26%
The model gave 74% on Rooster — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 74%
Series resultAbyssal 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2